So, the ballots have been cast, the numbers have been revealed, the tears have been shed, and the political reality for Russia for the next six years is, despite months of protest, precisely what is was when Putin and Medvedev announced they were swapping jobs. About the actual voting and whether or not the totals bear any resemblance to reality, I am capable of no sensible opinion. Putin probably would have won cleanly, but I still don't buy that there was no funny business.
Following things closely through these months, two things strike me. The first is the extent of the panic response from Putin, which shows clearly that the groundswell of opposition in the cities registered on his reptilian fear sensors. To an amazing degree, the establishment trotted out the familiar lines of anti-Americanism and retro appeals to the security of a state surrounded by hostile powers. This is the reliable old playbook from the 1920s.
The second is about the new role of the Internet in Russian life. For years, on LiveJournal and Twitter and other sites there have been rumblings of dissent that never seemed to gather any steam. All that changed in the past few months. Throughout the campaign I was wondering when we would see the government tighten its hold on new media, even as we saw state television go full in the bag, and pressure ratchet up on independent news sources like Ekho Moskvy. Would we see a ham-handed clampdown like the ill-fated Mubarak regime last year? or something more successfully sinister like in Iran, or sophisticated as in China? As I understand it, there was nothing of the sort at all. The Internet appears to remain open and free, which makes me wonder whether the Russian government is even capable of bringing it to heel if it wishes. That makes for a fascinating new normal in Russia.
It will be incredibly interesting to see how Putin chooses to govern over the next, sigh, six years. Will he keep up the paranoid thundering about enemies foreign and domestic at Volume level 11? does the nation have the stamina for another generation of such toxic nonsense? does Putin have, somewhere, a better angel of his nature that realizes he doesn't need to push the boot down quite so much, that the dissenters can grouse and groan all they want but can't change the political reality that the voters need not be consulted for another five years? And what if, once beautiful weather arrives, the protesters decide that they've developed a taste for expressing their views and continue to go into the streets?
And exactly how does he plan to ward off the danger of Brezhnevian stagnation? in the campaign, he promised the moon and the stars to the electorate -- and as long as oil prices remain preposterously high, he can deliver to a certain extent. But if something unforeseen happens, then what?
At this depressing moment, there are plenty of reasons to be doubtful and gloomy. But there are enough questions still open to suggest there may be surprises in the future.
Following things closely through these months, two things strike me. The first is the extent of the panic response from Putin, which shows clearly that the groundswell of opposition in the cities registered on his reptilian fear sensors. To an amazing degree, the establishment trotted out the familiar lines of anti-Americanism and retro appeals to the security of a state surrounded by hostile powers. This is the reliable old playbook from the 1920s.
The second is about the new role of the Internet in Russian life. For years, on LiveJournal and Twitter and other sites there have been rumblings of dissent that never seemed to gather any steam. All that changed in the past few months. Throughout the campaign I was wondering when we would see the government tighten its hold on new media, even as we saw state television go full in the bag, and pressure ratchet up on independent news sources like Ekho Moskvy. Would we see a ham-handed clampdown like the ill-fated Mubarak regime last year? or something more successfully sinister like in Iran, or sophisticated as in China? As I understand it, there was nothing of the sort at all. The Internet appears to remain open and free, which makes me wonder whether the Russian government is even capable of bringing it to heel if it wishes. That makes for a fascinating new normal in Russia.
It will be incredibly interesting to see how Putin chooses to govern over the next, sigh, six years. Will he keep up the paranoid thundering about enemies foreign and domestic at Volume level 11? does the nation have the stamina for another generation of such toxic nonsense? does Putin have, somewhere, a better angel of his nature that realizes he doesn't need to push the boot down quite so much, that the dissenters can grouse and groan all they want but can't change the political reality that the voters need not be consulted for another five years? And what if, once beautiful weather arrives, the protesters decide that they've developed a taste for expressing their views and continue to go into the streets?
And exactly how does he plan to ward off the danger of Brezhnevian stagnation? in the campaign, he promised the moon and the stars to the electorate -- and as long as oil prices remain preposterously high, he can deliver to a certain extent. But if something unforeseen happens, then what?
At this depressing moment, there are plenty of reasons to be doubtful and gloomy. But there are enough questions still open to suggest there may be surprises in the future.
No comments:
Post a Comment