It's Medvedev!

Putin is certainly fond of his surprises. Just as everyone was getting prepared to learn who the next president is going to be next Monday at the United Russia congress, he goes ahead and makes his choice public this afternoon.

I’d long thought Dmitry Medvedev would get the nod. He was the only one whose name came up whose entire political career is based on his close personal relationship with Vladimir Vladimirovich. Plus he was the only one with an important job – running Gazprom – that Putin might conceivably be interested in during his hiatus (if they wanted to go that route). But there were plenty of doubters: rumors that he was too soft or too young for the big job.

It didn't help that his specific portfolio includes all sorts of thankless tasks: diversifying the economy, and handling the Russia-is-shrinking demographic crisis. Things looked bad in September when Viktor Zubkov was named out of the blue as prime minister, but it is clear that was just an act for the voters, trotting out a Mike Ditka-style shouter to make it appear the government was doing something ahead of the Duma elections. And for awhile it looked bad if you relied on the old Kremlinologist skill of measuring face time on state television. Archrival Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov was always doing something cool – visiting a jet fighter factory, or greeting championship sports teams. Poor Medvedev was always stuck at some boring conference in the Kremlin behind his trusty Sony Vaio saying dull and not-so-horrifying things about important policy matters.

Putin’s announcement is a relief. It highlights the uncomfortable fact that Putin is perhaps the least bad option in contemporary Russia, and he seems to be managing his succession in the least bad manner possible. The world dodged a serious bullet in Ivanov, who is sort of like Putin except without the charisma and without the label “former” attached in front of his relationship with the security apparatus.

Watching these past few intense weeks of Russian political life, I have mixed feelings about the idea of “managed democracy.” For a moment, I think I can see the bright side. Putin will step aside according to the nation’s Constitution (in keeping with the spirit of 'rule of law'), and his endorsed successor will almost certainly earn the legitimate support of a landslide of voters in March. Whatever else happens makes sense – whether Medvedev just keeps the seat warm for four years until Putin can come back (backroom deals are hardly unheard of in the west – Tony Blair and Gordon Brown apparently carved up the Labor Party leadership over ten years ago) or if Putin becomes Prime Minister and continues to wield power there (which could probably be a good thing, as the accumulation of power in the Kremlin over the past eight years could use some sort of redistribution).

The only lesson seems to be that no matter what the context, politics is ugly business. Back home, one leading Republican candidate for president doesn’t “believe” in evolution, another believes the Garden of Eden was in Jackson County, Missouri, another proudly sponsored an anti-torture law that allows torture, and a certain former mayor of America’s most important city is sleazy enough that he could have had a successful career in Russian politics in the 90s.

[About that picture… This is my daughter’s plastic toy bear (medved' in Russian) who we’ve named Medvedev for obvious reasons: he always wears a spiffy neck-tie, and when you ask him a question and give him a nudge -- “is President Putin doing a good job?” or “is the economy going to improve” -- he nods enthusiastically at first, and then continues to nod delibrately and contently for a little longer.]