Sunday's Duma elections will likely come down to just a few percentage points. It is certain United Rusisa will maintain its legislative majority, and the only question is whether they'll keep the two-thirds needed to run everything in the old Soviet fashion, or will face the unlikely possibility of a minuscule speed bump. The remaining seats will go to a grab bag of quiescent "opposition" parties -- most likely the incumbents -- who will gladly go along to keep their seat at the table.
But in recent weeks there have been a stream of reports that the Kremlin is nervous about how the elections may go. Polls had shown support for United Russia is eroding, and a few high-profile incidents like Putin getting booed in public, and the twitter mockery of Dmitry Medvedev's ridiculous lame duck presidency, suggest a distinct undercurrent of discontent.
In today's Russia, the ruling elites -- the oligarchs and minigarchs and siloviki and grey cardinals and youth group organizers -- have achieved separation from the "people." They can now afford to take their vacations in Western Europe, send their kids to private school, park their cars wherever the hell they want, sleep in gated high-rise apartments, eat and party at elitny clubs, and shop in shiny, trashy malls. For this one percent, the 99 percent are those grey lumps your driver zooms past as you lounge behind the tinted windows of your German car.
The 99 percent is also a huge herd that exists to be milked. Through most of human history, you could get away with this con for generations. But it is harder now. General improvements, like widespread literacy, and specific ones, like social media, accelerate the cycle of envy and irritation.
You don't realize that "cows" have feelings too until it is way too late. And the the ruling elite in Russia seems to have made some telling misjudgments. It has felt for awhile like the tenor of discontent has been growing -- I've heard surprising yelps of discontent from people who had always been at least "okay" with the way things were going.
But a lot changed when Putin and Medvedev announced they would be switching places. One Saturday afternoon, the political direction of the country for the next 12 years was etched in stone. Of course, everyone knew that was a possible outcome -- in fact, it was always the most likely one. But the way the handover was botched was unusual. The "tandem" carried on like two 13 year olds pulling the old trick when you tie a string to a dollar bill and leave it on the sidewalk and yank it when an unsuspecting person stoopes to pick it up. This was the plan all along, they yucked. Har har. It's one thing to screw people, another to mock them while you do it. It was the kind of "misstep" that makes you wonder.
I've been thinking a lot about that incident over the summer that got a ton of attention around the world. Putin, while diving in the Black Sea, magically uncovered a priceless, ancient Roman amphora that had just happened to be lying around down there. State television lovingly recorded the amazing archaeological discovery. It was over-the-top, even for Putin's famously action-hero official image.
Since that happened, I've heard it mentioned in the West at panel discussions and in newspapers, usually in a context of "can you believe what these increasingly autocratic weirdos are trying to get away with?" That is a too quick reading. Russia is not North Korea, where state media explains how Kim Jong-Il always hits a hole-on-one whenever he golfs. Everyone knows Putin's Amphora is a put-on.
Some have said the worst part of this story is that Russia's bullshit detector, which late Soviet subjects needed to have, is broken. Again, I disagree. In Russia, there is a culture of the Big Lie, a conscious effort by those in charge to make reality elastic. Sometimes, this is a reflection of the absurdity always ready to erupt there. Build the new imperial capital on a frozen swamp just miles from the border of our sworn enemy? Let's call it St. Petersburg. Build a canal from the Baltic to the White seas through the winter? those prisoners are gonna need more shovels. Accuse the fathers and architects of the October Revolution of colluding with foreign fascists all along? wow, such treachery -- makes you wonder who you can trust anymore.
But the day to day reality of the Big Lie is actually even more sinister. It is about the dynamic of power between an increasingly brazen and alienated ruling class and the dupes that have to ride the Metro. It is a political and social mind-fuck. The powerful put on a straight face, and piously pronounce nonsense is truth. Everyone recognizes the bullshit, they complain about it in their kitchens, but few speak up, fewer do anything, and it is that absence of public sanity that reminds everyone of the real state of civil society.
Was the amphora moment a little trial balloon? What else they might be planning?
How about this possibility to ruin your weekend? No one would be surprised if United Russia lost a few seats this year. But what if they actually surprised us all and gained a lot of seats? wouldn't that change everything? what if a tide of curiously large, perfectly round numbers from places in the Caucuses gave the tandem an overwhelming mandate? Wouldn't that be something?
But in recent weeks there have been a stream of reports that the Kremlin is nervous about how the elections may go. Polls had shown support for United Russia is eroding, and a few high-profile incidents like Putin getting booed in public, and the twitter mockery of Dmitry Medvedev's ridiculous lame duck presidency, suggest a distinct undercurrent of discontent.
In today's Russia, the ruling elites -- the oligarchs and minigarchs and siloviki and grey cardinals and youth group organizers -- have achieved separation from the "people." They can now afford to take their vacations in Western Europe, send their kids to private school, park their cars wherever the hell they want, sleep in gated high-rise apartments, eat and party at elitny clubs, and shop in shiny, trashy malls. For this one percent, the 99 percent are those grey lumps your driver zooms past as you lounge behind the tinted windows of your German car.
The 99 percent is also a huge herd that exists to be milked. Through most of human history, you could get away with this con for generations. But it is harder now. General improvements, like widespread literacy, and specific ones, like social media, accelerate the cycle of envy and irritation.
You don't realize that "cows" have feelings too until it is way too late. And the the ruling elite in Russia seems to have made some telling misjudgments. It has felt for awhile like the tenor of discontent has been growing -- I've heard surprising yelps of discontent from people who had always been at least "okay" with the way things were going.
But a lot changed when Putin and Medvedev announced they would be switching places. One Saturday afternoon, the political direction of the country for the next 12 years was etched in stone. Of course, everyone knew that was a possible outcome -- in fact, it was always the most likely one. But the way the handover was botched was unusual. The "tandem" carried on like two 13 year olds pulling the old trick when you tie a string to a dollar bill and leave it on the sidewalk and yank it when an unsuspecting person stoopes to pick it up. This was the plan all along, they yucked. Har har. It's one thing to screw people, another to mock them while you do it. It was the kind of "misstep" that makes you wonder.
I've been thinking a lot about that incident over the summer that got a ton of attention around the world. Putin, while diving in the Black Sea, magically uncovered a priceless, ancient Roman amphora that had just happened to be lying around down there. State television lovingly recorded the amazing archaeological discovery. It was over-the-top, even for Putin's famously action-hero official image.
Since that happened, I've heard it mentioned in the West at panel discussions and in newspapers, usually in a context of "can you believe what these increasingly autocratic weirdos are trying to get away with?" That is a too quick reading. Russia is not North Korea, where state media explains how Kim Jong-Il always hits a hole-on-one whenever he golfs. Everyone knows Putin's Amphora is a put-on.
Some have said the worst part of this story is that Russia's bullshit detector, which late Soviet subjects needed to have, is broken. Again, I disagree. In Russia, there is a culture of the Big Lie, a conscious effort by those in charge to make reality elastic. Sometimes, this is a reflection of the absurdity always ready to erupt there. Build the new imperial capital on a frozen swamp just miles from the border of our sworn enemy? Let's call it St. Petersburg. Build a canal from the Baltic to the White seas through the winter? those prisoners are gonna need more shovels. Accuse the fathers and architects of the October Revolution of colluding with foreign fascists all along? wow, such treachery -- makes you wonder who you can trust anymore.
But the day to day reality of the Big Lie is actually even more sinister. It is about the dynamic of power between an increasingly brazen and alienated ruling class and the dupes that have to ride the Metro. It is a political and social mind-fuck. The powerful put on a straight face, and piously pronounce nonsense is truth. Everyone recognizes the bullshit, they complain about it in their kitchens, but few speak up, fewer do anything, and it is that absence of public sanity that reminds everyone of the real state of civil society.
Was the amphora moment a little trial balloon? What else they might be planning?
How about this possibility to ruin your weekend? No one would be surprised if United Russia lost a few seats this year. But what if they actually surprised us all and gained a lot of seats? wouldn't that change everything? what if a tide of curiously large, perfectly round numbers from places in the Caucuses gave the tandem an overwhelming mandate? Wouldn't that be something?
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