The great thing about being a pessimist is that if the awful thing actually happens, you can take comfort in at least being right, and if it doesn't, you're so glad who cares what you thought. Proving that Russia is never boring, my predictions were way off.
But... you can never be too cynical when thinking about Russia, so the headlines in the West about Putin taking a beating miss the point. Watching election coverage Sunday, the talking points emerged pretty quickly: the economy is horrible, of course the incumbents would take a beating! and doesn't this prove once and for all that democracy in Russia is transparent?
You don't have to look too hard to realize this is too simple. Look at the roster of opposition parties in the new Duma: all the same chuckleheads who were the "opposition" in the old Duma. I heard a very telling quote from a United Russia leader on Russia Today last night, talking about how there would be no permanent coalition partner, but that they would make "technical" coalitions on a case by case basis. This means they'll pair up with A Just Russia for legislation to quiet human rights scolding, with the Communists to quiet whining pensioners, and with LDPR when they need to serve up some red meat to shut up ultranationalists.
And the system itself remains badly screwed up. National party-list voting in a country the size of Russia is plainly ridiculous. Voters don't choose leaders to represent them -- they choose party hacks who are loyal to their party leaders, who are loyal to themselves. And the fact no one ever talks about the Federation Council, theoretically a part of the legislative branch, says it all. And voters won't get to say anything about again for five years.
But... you can never be too cynical when thinking about Russia, so the headlines in the West about Putin taking a beating miss the point. Watching election coverage Sunday, the talking points emerged pretty quickly: the economy is horrible, of course the incumbents would take a beating! and doesn't this prove once and for all that democracy in Russia is transparent?
You don't have to look too hard to realize this is too simple. Look at the roster of opposition parties in the new Duma: all the same chuckleheads who were the "opposition" in the old Duma. I heard a very telling quote from a United Russia leader on Russia Today last night, talking about how there would be no permanent coalition partner, but that they would make "technical" coalitions on a case by case basis. This means they'll pair up with A Just Russia for legislation to quiet human rights scolding, with the Communists to quiet whining pensioners, and with LDPR when they need to serve up some red meat to shut up ultranationalists.
And the system itself remains badly screwed up. National party-list voting in a country the size of Russia is plainly ridiculous. Voters don't choose leaders to represent them -- they choose party hacks who are loyal to their party leaders, who are loyal to themselves. And the fact no one ever talks about the Federation Council, theoretically a part of the legislative branch, says it all. And voters won't get to say anything about again for five years.
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